3月19日预测显示，国内油价将于周一午夜迎来2026年第四次上调，92号汽油预计涨1.73元/升，加满50升油箱多花约86.5元，95号汽油涨幅达1.83元/升。
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China will adjust the retail price caps for gasoline and diesel at midnight on Monday, initiating a new pricing cycle, according to a report by China Central Television (CCTV).
Many consumers have reportedly received notifications indicating that fuel prices are expected to increase, with a relatively significant rise anticipated.
CCTV, citing forecasts based on recent movements in international crude oil prices, noted that the projected increase has already exceeded the adjustment threshold of 50 yuan ($7) per ton, making an upward revision highly likely. Estimates suggest that the price of No. 92 gasoline could surpass 9 yuan ($1.25) per liter.
Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, contributing to higher global oil prices.
According to industry monitoring models referenced by CCTV, as of March 19—the ninth working day of the current pricing cycle—the crude price change rate had reached 45.21 percent. This implies an estimated increase of around 2,000 yuan per ton in domestic retail price caps for refined oil products. Analysts indicated that, as the adjustment window approaches, the increase could rise further to approximately 2,200 yuan per ton.
On a per-liter basis, prices for No. 92 gasoline are projected to increase by about 1.73 yuan, No. 95 gasoline by 1.83 yuan, and No. 0 diesel by 1.87 yuan. If implemented at this level, the cost of filling a 50-liter fuel tank would rise by roughly 86.5 yuan for private vehicle owners.
Since the start of 2026, China has conducted five pricing adjustments for refined oil products, resulting in four increases and one unchanged adjustment. Compared to the end of 2025, gasoline prices have risen by 1,160 yuan per ton, while diesel prices have increased by 1,120 yuan per ton.
Wholesale prices in the refined oil market have also climbed sharply since the current pricing cycle began on March 9. As of the latest data cited by CCTV, the average market price of No. 92 gasoline reached 9,479 yuan per ton, up 14.8 percent from the previous cycle, while diesel averaged 7,977 yuan per ton, marking a 15.9 percent increase.
Analysts attributed the upward trend to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, which have tightened global supply. They also noted that domestic supply concerns and efforts by major state-owned enterprises to ensure stable retail availability have further supported higher wholesale prices.
Looking ahead, analysts expect international crude oil prices to remain elevated in the near term due to continued geopolitical uncertainties.
Source: Baidu.com
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