Shanghai faces a warmer, wetter winter with sudden cold snaps due to a super El Niño event confirmed by the National Climate Center for late 2026.
Tags:Shanghai May Get a Warmer, Wetter Winter—but Sudden Cold Snaps Are Still Coming
Global sea-surface temperature anomalies in September 2026. Image: National Climate Center.
A super El Niño event has officially formed, and Shanghai could be heading for a winter that is warmer and wetter than usual.
That does not mean residents can put away their heavy coats.
China's National Climate Center announced on October 9 that the event officially formed in September. Sea-surface temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region averaged 2.54°C above normal from July to September, reaching China's threshold for a “super” El Niño event.
The center expects Pacific temperatures to continue rising over the next three months and peak in late autumn or early winter. It said the event could become the strongest since systematic monitoring began.
What could this mean for Shanghai?
Shanghai climate specialists stressed that El Niño changes probabilities rather than determining every day's weather.
Looking at previous super El Niño years, Shanghai's autumn rainfall was generally slightly below normal. However, autumn typhoons can still produce sudden periods of heavy rain, while most rain caused by clashes between warm and cold air may be concentrated in November.
Cold air is also expected to become more active around mid-November, creating the possibility of sharp temperature swings.
During winter, historical patterns point toward conditions that are warmer and wetter on average.
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A warm winter can still have freezing days
“Warmer than normal” describes the seasonal average. It does not mean every day will feel warm, or that Shanghai will avoid cold waves.
A few short but severe cold spells can still occur during an otherwise mild winter. In Shanghai, high humidity can also make a modest temperature feel considerably colder, especially inside homes without central heating.
Local specialists therefore highlighted sudden temperature drops as one of the main risks to watch, particularly for people with cardiovascular or respiratory conditions.
Why this El Niño is considered “super”
El Niño occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific remain unusually warm, changing atmospheric circulation and influencing weather patterns around the world.
The monthly Niño 3.4 sea-temperature index and Southern Oscillation Index. Image: National Climate Center.
China's official classification uses the three-month moving average of sea-surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region. The July–September average reached 2.54°C above normal, crossing the 2.5°C threshold for a super event.
In September alone, the Niño 3.4 index reached 2.94°C, while parts of the eastern Pacific were more than 3°C warmer than normal.
These figures confirm that a major climate event is underway. The exact impact on Shanghai will still depend on cold-air systems, typhoons and other ocean-atmosphere patterns over the coming months.
The practical message: Shanghai's winter may be mild on average, but keep the heavy coat ready for abrupt changes.
Source: 上海杨浦
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