El Niño may weaken winter winds and bring longer, wider air pollution episodes across China this autumn and winter, with revised emergency controls and earlier PM2.5 warnings planned.
Tags:China could face more persistent air pollution this autumn and winter as El Niño affects weather patterns, according to a China Daily report citing the Ministry of Ecology and Environment.
The ministry warned that the warming of the tropical Pacific could intensify, potentially reaching “super El Niño” strength. These conditions may weaken the East Asian winter monsoon and bring fewer cold-air systems to northern China. With less wind to clear the atmosphere, pollution could linger across larger areas for longer periods.
Winter already creates difficult conditions for air quality. Heating increases emissions, while calm weather and temperature inversions can trap polluted air close to the ground.
The report points to a prolonged haze episode during the previous El Niño, from late 2023 into early 2024. It lasted 16 days, spread across approximately 2.7 million square kilometres and brought heavy pollution to nearly 100 cities. Ministry spokesman Pei Xiaofei said the episode also pushed up the country’s annual average concentration of PM2.5, the fine particles used to measure air pollution.
To prepare, authorities plan to revise emergency procedures and make emissions controls more specific to individual industries, businesses and production lines. Local restrictions would vary according to the location, timing and seriousness of pollution, rather than applying identical measures everywhere.
Earlier warnings are another priority. According to the ministry, China’s forecasts now identify PM2.5 pollution episodes with more than 90 percent accuracy, while predictions of their severity exceed 80 percent accuracy.
A nationwide response network involving provincial, city and county authorities allows action when moderate pollution is expected to persist, helping officials intervene before conditions become severe.
Enforcement will also focus on businesses that exceed emissions limits or manipulate monitoring results. Authorities will use satellite observations, emissions monitoring, electricity consumption data and site visits to identify potential violations, with surprise inspections in areas experiencing serious pollution.
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